Stablecoin-Based Parallel Exchange Rates in Republic of Moldova: Macroeconomic and Regulatory Determinants (2023-2025)

Abstract

This article examines whether stablecoins pegged to the U.S. dollar could create a shadow channel for USD/MDL pricing in the Republic of Moldova and how the stablecoin premium should be interpreted in 2023–2025. There search problem arises because the official exchange rate published by the National Bank of Moldova is used for accounting purposes and does not determine the actual execution of transactions, whereas after July 1, 2023, access to services related to virtual assets has become more restricted. The aim of this article is to identify regulatory and macroeconomic determinants capable of widening the gap between the P2P USDT/MDL exchange rate and the official USD/MDL reference rate, as well as to propose a framework for measuring this gap using historical exchange rate data. The methodology combines legal, regulatory, and macroeconomic analysis based on data from the National Bank of Moldova, the European Payments Council, the European Commission, the IMF, the FATF, and the FSB, as well as an operational definition of the stablecoin premium and the P2P spread. The results allow us to draw three conclusions. First, Moldova’s institutional environment has tended to foster segmented shadow pricing rather than neutral crypto pricing. Second, the ban on providing services related to virtual assets, which took effect in July 2023, likely intensified frictions in on-ramp and off-ramp channels, increasing the likelihood of a positive premium. Third, accelerating inflation in late 2024, tighter monetary policy in early 2025, and external imbalances likely boosted demand for dollar liquidity, whereas European integration and SEPA adoption suggest a reduction in medium-term frictions for euro transfers. Consequently, the most plausible analytical framework is an interpretation based on regulatory frictions, while the exact historical values of the premium require further reconstruction based on preserved P2P data. CZU: 336.748:338.1(478); JEL: E42; E58; F31; G28; F22