Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Performance in Small Open Economies: Implications for Moldova

Abstract

Exchange rate volatility is widely recognized as a key determinant of trade performance, particularly in small open economies where external competitiveness is sensitive to currency fluctuations. Despite Moldova’s high degree of openness and reliance on external markets, empirical research directly linking exchange rate volatility to its export performance remains limited. This paper synthesizes existing literature on Moldova’s exchange rate environment, develops a theoretical and conceptual framework for understanding the volatility–export nexus, and proposes a rigorous methodological approach for future empirical analysis. The paper concludes by identifying critical research gaps and outlining a comprehensive empirical strategy for quantifying the impact of exchange rate volatility on Moldova’s exports. UDC: 336.748.1:339.564(478); JEL: F10, F13, F14, F17