Assessment of the Vulnerability and External Economic Resilience of the Republic of Moldova in Relation to Regional Geopolitical Risks and the Transformations of the International Trading System

Abstract

The study assesses the vulnerability and external economic resilience of the Republic of Moldova in the context of increasing regional geopolitical risks and ongoing transformations of the international trading system. The analysis covers the period 2014–2024 and is based on official statistical data on exports, imports, and nominal gross domestic product. The research examines the dynamics of external trade flows, structural changes in the geographical orientation of exports, the level of trade openness, and the persistence of trade imbalances. In addition, a log-linear econometric model is estimated using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, which enables the evaluation of the relationship between exports, the size of the economy, and the share of exports directed toward the European Union market. The results indicate that the progressive reorientation of exports toward the European Union has contributed to strengthening external resilience. However, the persistent trade deficit and the high level of trade openness continue to maintain a significant degree of structural vulnerability. The contribution of the study lies in integrating the descriptive analysis of trade indicators with the econometric evaluation of the determinants of export performance, thereby providing a systemic perspective on the external economic position of the Republic of Moldova. UDC: [338.1(478):911.3:32]:339.5(478); JEL: F14, F62, O11