Abstract:
This report presents an econometric model of type ARIMAX (0,2,1), developed to forecast and explain the dynamics of the House Price Index for New Dwellings in Bulgaria for the period 2015Q4–2025Q3 on a quarterly basis (40 observations in total). The model is based on a preliminary screening of 16 potential factors across four thematic groups: macroeconomic indicators, income and labour market, credit indicators, and investment and wealth. The objective is to identify statistically significant determinants of housing prices, assess the quality of the model, and formulate conclusions regarding its practical applicability for analysis and short-term forecasting of the new residential property market in Bulgaria. UDC: 330.43:[332.852.1:338.5](497.2)"2015/2025"; JEL: R31, C22, E44
Description:
ZAHARIEV, Andrey. Econometric Assessment of the Influence of Financial and Economic Factors on the Prices of New Homes in Bulgaria (2015-2025). Online. In: Sustainability and Economic Resilience in the Context of Global Systemic Transformations: International Scientific and Practical Conference: Proceedings, 5th Edition, March 19-20, 2026. Chişinău: [S. n.], 2026 (SEP ASEM), pp. 87-93. ISBN 978-9975-182-23-2. Disponibil: https://doi.org/10.53486/ser2026.08
