Digital Transformation and Economic Resilience: How Digital Ecosystems Strengthen Adaptive Capacity in Emerging Economies

Abstract

The claim that digitalisation strengthens the resilience of emerging economies is widely asserted but rarely tested with the precision the concept demands. This paper distinguishes resilience into a resistance margin (the depth of contraction under a shock) and a recovery margin (the speed, reach, and inclusiveness of the rebound and of relief delivery), and asks which margin national digital ecosystems actually strengthen. Using a comparative policy analysis of six economies (Brazil, India, and Kenya as a global frontier, Estonia as a regional frontier, and Ukraine and Moldova as diagnostic cases) across two sequential shocks (the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2022 energy-and-war disturbance), it triangulates cross-country indicators, within-case process tracing, and existing empirical evidence. Digital maturity does not explain contraction depth: five of the six economies sit in the top GovTech maturity group, yet their 2020 contractions varied widely and tracked lockdown stringency, economic structure, and exposure to energy and conflict rather than any digital indicator. Digital ecosystems instead governed the recovery margin, determining how quickly and how inclusively states reached and paid citizens through interoperable public rails. Moldova has shown it can wire infrastructure into crisis delivery: its 2022 “Ajutor la contor” energy-compensation system auto-targeted around three-quarters of households and cut energy poverty by 43%. But it did so reactively and for a single sector; the task is to institutionalise permanent, pre-positioned, general-purpose rails. UDC: [330.342.22:004]:330.354; JEL: O33; O38; O11; H12