Integrated Input-Output Modelling for Economic Convergence and Investment Impact Assessment: a Structural Forecasting Framework for the Republic of Moldova

Abstract

The paper develops an integrated macroeconomic modelling framework designed to strengthen the analytical and forecasting capacity of economic governance in the Republic of Moldova. Based on the reconstruction and extension of Supply-Use and Input-Output Tables (SUT/IOT), the study establishes a structural and methodological foundation for aligning Moldova’s national accounts with the standards of the European System of Accounts (ESA 2010) and the System of National Accounts (SNA 2008). By combining SUT/IOT reconstruction with econometric modelling, the research demonstrates how structural consistency enhances both macroeconomic forecasting and policy evaluation. The model incorporates data for 2005-2023 and captures the dynamic interactions between output, investment, trade, and fiscal aggregates. Through scenario analysis, it assesses how policy shocks and investment programs, particularly those financed through European funds, affect growth, employment, and intersectoral linkages. The results show that the restoration of Moldova’s input–output framework can significantly improve the evidence base for national and European policy coordination, while offering a practical instrument for monitoring convergence and investment efficiency. The study concludes that institutional modernization and digital integration of such models are key prerequisites for sustainable development and effective absorption of European resources. UDC: 330.44+330.322.54+330.101.541:338.27(478); JEL: D57, C68, E01, F15, O47, H54