Study of the Causes and Challenges of Global Crises

Abstract

The study investigates the causes and challenges of global crises, which have repeatedly disrupted nations, affecting economic stability and reshaping strategic priorities. It examines the intricate dynamics of these crises by identifying their root causes and assessing their impact on national decision-making. The research categorizes crises from two key perspectives: temporal and thematic. The temporal perspective considers crises as evolving through three distinct phases – pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis – each requiring specific approaches to preparedness, response, and recovery. The thematic perspective classifies crises into categories such as health, environmental, economic, political, and humanitarian, emphasizing their interconnected nature and global repercussions, which demand coordinated international action. The study illustrates how major crises – including the 2008 financial downturn, the 2015 ISIS terrorist attacks, the Syrian refugee crisis, climate-related disasters, the COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine – have compelled governments to swiftly reassess and adjust their strategic priorities. The analysis explores how these crises have influenced national policies, particularly in economic planning, social protection measures, and geopolitical strategies. The research further explores how governments' strategic decisions are influenced by external shocks, vulnerability levels, and anticipatory capacities. It identifies two main strategies for responding to crises: "bouncing back" strategies, which involve cost-cutting and downsizing, and "bouncing forward" strategies, which focus on transformation, innovation, and repositioning. The study applies these concepts to local government decision-making processes in Germany, Italy, and the UK, demonstrating how different governments respond to external shocks based on perceived vulnerability and available anticipatory capacities. The findings suggest that the effectiveness of government responses to global crises depends on the interplay between the nature of the shock, perceived vulnerability, and anticipatory capacities, leading to varied strategic outcomes. These insights are critical for understanding how governments can better prepare for and respond to future global crises, emphasizing the need for proactive and adaptive strategies that address both the global and localized impacts of such crises. CZU: 338.124.4(100); JEL: F52, H12. O19