Forecasting and Distribution of the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Türkiye

Abstract

A simple linear regression model is used to predict and forecast total greenhouse gas emissions. The parameters of the regression model are determined using maximum likelihood estimation method, assuming that the error terms follow an exponential power distribution. The grid search algorithm efficiently determines the shape parameter of this distribution, with a calculated value of 111.92, suggesting a tendency towards a uniform distribution of the observed values. The convergence of the exponential distribution of carbon emission data to a uniform distribution indicates collective behavior in the consumption of natural resources. Forecasts for the years 2023 and 2035 are provided for the total greenhouse gas emissions in Türkiye. DOI: https://doi.org/10.53486/cike2024.16; UDC: 620.92:[504.05:551.588.74](560); JEL Classification: Q50, Q54, H54