E-Commerce Trends and Prospects in European Union Member States: Evolution Analysis and Forecast

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the share of enterprises from the European Union member states that use e-commerce sales channels, with emphasis on total online sales, web sales and EDI-type sales, during the period 2015–2025. The study is based on a dynamic statistical approach that includes annual level comparisons, fixed-base and chain-base absolute changes, relative changes, average indicators, and a linear trend applied for short-term forecasting. The results show that the share of enterprises with e-commerce sales increased from 18.93% at the beginning of the series to 23.59% at its end. At the same time, the share of enterprises with web sales rose from 15.07% to 20.69%, while the EDI-type sales component followed a fluctuating but slightly downward trend, from 6.53% to 5.60%. The findings indicate that the development of e-commerce in the European Union is driven mainly by the expansion of more accessible web-based channels, whereas EDI remains more specific to standardized commercial relationships. The forecast suggests the continuation of this tendency, with further growth in total e-commerce and web sales, alongside a moderate decline in the EDI component. CZU: 658.155:[004.738.5:339.1](4EU); JEL N: C22, C53, L81, L86, O33