Corporate Finances or Citizen Micro-Donations? Analysis of Financial Indicators of Political Success in the 2025 Parliamentary Elections

Abstract

Examining the relationship between the structure of funding sources and electoral performance in the context of the 2025 parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova reveals a paradigm shift in the way political capital is attracted, managed and financially capitalized. The present paper starts from the premise that the origin of campaign funds is not just a matter of legal compliance, but a direct indicator of the type of social contract that political parties propose to voters. The main objective of the study is to identify the indicator with the greatest capacity to predict electoral success. The research balances massive contributions from legal entities and micro-donations offered by citizens. Secondary objectives aim to calculate the financial return of each vote obtained and assess the degree of democratization of political financing in the Republic of Moldova. The methodology used is based on the comparative analysis of 10 political parties, grouped by electoral performance and the volume of campaign budgets. The data extracted from the financial reports presented in the "Financial Control" system of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) are evaluated in terms of cost-per-vote efficiency and donor participation index. The results indicate that, while corporate funding provides resources for campaign infrastructure, micro-donations from citizens at home and abroad are the most reliable predictor of success. The study highlights that the infusion of capital from the diaspora not only diversified sources of income, but also functioned as a catalyst for organic mobilization, reducing dependence on economic interest groups. In conclusion, the democratization of financing through small and large contributions strengthens political legitimacy and electoral efficiency in the democratic maturation process of the Republic of Moldova. In the long term, these results suggest that the sustainability of political parties will depend on their ability to maintain participatory financing mechanisms that prevent the capture of state institutions by narrow economic interest groups. At the same time, empirical validation of the effectiveness of micro-donations provides a solid argument for public policies that encourage grassroots political philanthropy as a pillar of democratic stability. UDC: 324:[336.52+330.322.12](478); JEL: D72, G38, H81