Geostrategy of Digital Threats

Abstract

This article examines the transformation of digital threats into instruments of geostrategy, positioning cyberspace as a critical "fifth domain" of global power competition. Through a systematic analysis of the evolution, actors, tactics, and impacts of state-sponsored and non-state cyber operations, the study reveals how digital threats have shifted from technical disruptions to core elements of national security strategy. Key findings indicate: (1) Geopolitical drivers, including inter- state rivalry, technological dependency, and asymmetric advantages, fuel the weaponization of cyberspace; (2) State and non-state actors (e.g., cyber powers like the U.S., China, Russia; proxy groups; criminal syndicates) exploit tactics such as APTs, critical infrastructure sabotage, disinformation, and ransomware to achieve strategic goals; (3) Systemic consequences include the erosion of strategic stability, blurring of war/peace thresholds ("gray zone" conflicts), vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure, and challenges to international law and norms; (4) Regulatory fragmentation persists, with voluntary norms (UN GGE) lacking enforcement, while states prioritize national resilience, offensive cyber capabilities, and coalitional deterrence. The study concludes that digital threats now constitute a central destabilizing factor in international relations, demanding urgent multilateral cooperation to establish binding rules, foster trust, and invest in next-generation security technologies (AI, post-quantum cryptography). Without a paradigm shift toward collaborative governance, persistent cyber competition risks systemic global instability. UDC: [004.056:005.21]:[32.019.5+327.8]; JEL: F52, O33, H56, K24