The effects of interest applications in the covid-19 period on the housing market and individuals' housing investment decisions: evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Actuality: As a result, interest rate policies implemented in Turkey after 2018 revealed negative real interest rates in some periods. On the other hand, After Covid-19 outbreak in Turkey, like other countries, economic life is also affected negatively. During this period, Turkish public banks followed a policy of supporting housing sales and economic activities through interest rates well below inflation. In addition, the negative real interest rates have led investors to focus on investment alternatives such as stock, gold, currency, automobiles and housing. While low interest rate increases purchasing power, the expected increase in demand also increases housing prices. Changes in housing prices and interest rates cause individuals to lose depend on their conditions. Therefore, the purpose of the study is to question whether the decisions of individual investors to purchase houses are rational and to analyze the housing market where individuals are trading. Research Method: In the study, monthly housing sales, monthly housing price index, monthly consumer price inflation and monthly housing loan interest rates data for the 2013-January and 2020-July period were used. Results: In the period of 2018 exchange rate fluctuations and the first Pandemic of 2020, it has been observed that the sales in the Turkish housing market have bottomed out in April 2020 on a monthly basis in the last 8 years, reaching a peak with 229.357 units in July 2020 in only three months later. This situation shows that Turkish investors see building purchases as an important investment alternative. On the other hand, in the May- July 2020 period, it was observed that housing prices reacted before interest rate cuts and housing sales. This increased the likelihood of loss for those who withdraw their money from bank deposits and buy housing for investment purposes. This loss increases especially when low-income investors have a low loan utilization rate. Implications: The findings reveal the importance of a balanced policy in the interest rate decisions of the public. Findings also contain essential information for investors, academics and other market actors. JEL: D14, G51, G41.