Technological Progress: Towards a Theoretical Perspective

Abstract

Technological progress is a primary engine of economic growth, yet its acceleration carries costs – technological unemployment, widening inequality, capital obsolescence, and rising socio-economic and cybersecurity risks – that may offset its benefits. This paper asks whether the negative consequences of scientific and technological progress outweigh the positive ones, and how a sanctioned economy such as Belarus pursues technological sovereignty under these conditions. The study combines a qualitative analysis of the theoretical literature with a comparative review of national models of technological development in China, the European Union, the United States, Africa, and Latin America, drawing on data from the National Statistical Committee of the Republic of Belarus and the State Committee on Science and Technology. The analysis identifies the main channels through which technological progress affects growth and maps the dominant characteristics and negative effects of progress across regions. For Belarus, the science intensity of GDP rose to 0.59% by the end of 2024, the number of organisations performing research and development reached 463, and the innovation infrastructure expanded to 16 science and technology parks hosting 274 residents. The findings suggest that Belarus has not yet encountered the adverse effects of technological progress; rather, the isolation imposed by sanctions appears to accelerate its drive toward technological sovereignty. The paper argues that activating the country’s innovation, start-up, and entrepreneurial ecosystems is the decisive condition for sustaining this trajectory. UDC: 330.341.1; JEL: O10, O30, O38