Moldova's Exports: Between Regional Instability and the Challenges of the Global Economy

Abstract

The article analyzes how Moldova's exports have been affected by the regional instability caused by the conflict in Ukraine. As well as the macroeconomic challenges of the global economy, the volatility of international prices, the fragmentation of supply chains and inflationary pressures, (focus on the year 2020-2024). This study pursued three directions: the analysis of the value and structural development of exports, changes in the geographical structure and the assessment of the economy's ability to adapt to external impacts. The research comprises both quantitative and qualitative evaluation indicators, such as the Export Diversification Index – to determine structural change in exports, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) – to measure export market concentration and systemic vulnerability external shocks (logistical bottlenecks, fluctuations in global demand). Data sources such as the National Bureau of Statistics, UNCTADstat, the World Bank and Trade Map were used. The result shows a dependence on traditional markets and low value-added products. The situation increases the vulnerability of exports to external shocks. However, some progress has been seen in recent years – notably in diversifying the processed agri-food sector and expanding trade. Even so, the low level of the diversification index and the high values of HHI show that structural imbalances remain strong. That is why we need trade policies that are resilient and much more flexible. In the new global context, Moldova has only to gain if it rethinks its export promotion model. A focus on smarter integration into international value chains, better resilience to disruption and diversification could turn exports into an engine of sustainable growth. JEL: F10, F15, F43